Listed space companies have lost more than half of their late-May peaks, even as private funding hit records and SpaceX reported its first profitable quarter as a public company. The gap says less about demand for space services than about where capital, attention and risk appetite have moved.
From late-May peak to steep drawdown
Planet Labs, Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile all peaked in late May, with Rocket Lab near $151 and Planet Labs near $52. By late July each was more than 50% below its high. By mid-October, Rocket Lab traded around $64 and Planet Labs around $15. That is roughly 58% and 70% below those highs, by our calculation.
The SpaceX effect
The first blow was SpaceX’s record $75 billion IPO in June. On the first day of the aftermath, Rocket Lab and Planet Labs each lost about 8%, AST SpaceMobile more than 12% and Virgin Galactic 28%, as investors took profits after a long run-up. Seraphim’s Lucas Bishop has argued that SpaceX’s scale and visibility may have pulled attention away from smaller listed peers, according to Reuters’ account of the firm’s Q3 report.
A strong August earnings season briefly lifted the group. Rocket Lab’s second-quarter revenue rose 62% to $234 million, and Redwire posted record revenue. The rally did not last. SpaceX shares themselves fell 13.6% the day after its first earnings report, when AI spending worried investors.
Competition moves from rockets to spectrum
October brought a different threat. On October 6, the FCC cleared SpaceX to deploy 15,000 Starlink Mobile satellites without a carrier spectrum lease, and on October 8 SpaceX agreed to buy nationwide 800 MHz spectrum from Grain Management, according to TIKR. AST SpaceMobile took the brunt, and Piper Sandler cut it to neutral on October 13. Deutsche Bank argued the opposite, saying the selloff exceeded the value of AST’s spectrum position. Planet Labs and Rocket Lab, which sit outside the spectrum fight, fell in sympathy.
Company-specific setbacks
Rocket Lab’s own news did not help. On October 14 it pushed the first launch of Neutron into 2027 after inspections found voids in a carbon-composite dome of the first-stage tank, and the shares fell sharply. The timing is awkward. SpaceX is reportedly preparing to wind down Falcon 9, and Firefly and Blue Origin have warned customers of a launch-market reset.
Valuations and macro
In July, Rocket Lab traded at 55 times revenue. On October 8, a spike in crude oil and elevated Treasury yields weighed on growth stocks. On October 22, a tech selloff hit high-volatility space names harder than the broader market, and SpaceX fell about 7% only days after its profit report.
What could turn it around
Earnings proof. SpaceX’s third-quarter revenue reached $14.6 billion with $4.4 billion in net income, and the stock rose about 8% the next day. Rocket Lab’s third-quarter consensus is roughly $258 million in revenue, against a $2.36 billion backlog at the end of the second quarter.
Golden Dome money. Congress is weighing roughly $17.5 billion more for the missile-defence programme after the November 3 midterms, TipRanks notes. SpaceX has taken the largest share so far, but Rocket Lab has won a $397 million Space Force award, and Redwire booked $84 million tied to Golden Dome in the second quarter.
A launch squeeze. If Falcon 9 capacity really tightens, customers will need alternatives. Neutron’s delay limits Rocket Lab’s ability to benefit.
A Starship milestone. Flight 14 was SpaceX’s first revenue-generating Starship mission, delivering 26 Starlink V3 satellites. Analysts see Flight 15 as a potential sector-wide catalyst.
Private capital. Seraphim expects funding to moderate from Q3’s $20.8 billion but stay above historical norms, according to its Q3 2026 report. Its median deal size fell to $9.8 million, so the money is concentrated in a few large rounds.
The bottom line
The drawdown looks more like a repricing than a collapse in demand. Private investors, governments and SpaceX itself are spending heavily. For listed challengers, the way back probably runs through execution: working rockets, contracts that turn into revenue and a calmer macro backdrop. This is editorial analysis, not investment advice.
Disclosures and legal notice
Prepared by: Áron Boros, CEO, Stradamus Zrt., 31 October 2026.
Interests: At the time of finalizing this article, the author holds positions in a few of the issuers, but has no business relationship with them. Stradamus Zrt. is not involved.
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This article is general industry information and the author’s sector-level opinion. It does not constitute investment advice, investment research, or an investment recommendation within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 (MAR), and it contains no buy, hold or sell recommendation for any single financial instrument or issuer, nor any price or valuation estimate. The listing of named companies serves solely to illustrate the structure of the market. Past price data is no guarantee of future performance. Investing involves risk; the invested capital may be lost in whole or in part. Before making any decision, please seek the help of a licensed investment adviser.
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